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标题: 谁能用人话告诉我，比特币到底是什么？ [打印本页]

作者: admin 时间: 2013-4-19 12:39
标题: 谁能用人话告诉我，比特币到底是什么？
“上周才400元，这周涨到600元，入手晚了，放弃。”4月1日，一名犹豫的比特币投资者遗憾地转身离去。一星期后，有人回帖：“现在已经1200元了，你后悔么？ ”
低调而神秘的比特币，在ZG的小圈子中悄悄红了。他们操着一口外人听不懂的行话来掘金：煤老板、矿工、矿机、媒子，他们动辄采购十几万元的设备来“挖掘”这种看不见的虚拟货币。他们在暴涨和暴跌中体验过山车般的心跳，他们在愤怒和迷茫中激辩：这是否又是一场庞氏骗局？
在过去的一周中，本报记者通过多方采访和“蹲点”数个比特币QQ群，试图解答一个最简单的问题——比特币，究竟是什么？

中本聪的神秘货币

“谁能用人话告诉我，比特币到底是什么？”在翻阅了数篇枯燥晦涩的报道和入门教程后，媒体人“兮邪”崩溃了。在她看来，这种复杂而庞大的交易逻辑，已经超乎了大众的认知。
2008年底，比特币诞生于一个外界知晓甚少的密码学讨论小组。一个名为中本聪的神秘人兴奋地阐述了自己的构想，并真的将它“开采”了出来。圈内的“老鸟”们迅速被这个严密而充满想象力的比特币体系所震撼，也开始追查中本聪的真实身份，但一无所获：他的邮箱是德国的，名字是日本的，谷歌上没有任何资料，IP地址也难以追溯……时至今日，他始终没有露面，甚至有人怀疑这幕后是一个团队。
虚拟的货币是怎样被“开采”的？记者查阅英文版维基百科发现，用户需要运行一个特殊的软件，贡献出CPU的运算能力来成为一名“矿工”。这个软件的主要任务是破解一道道不可逆的密码难题，完成的奖励就是比特币。随着矿工越来越多、已挖掘的交易区域越来越多，比特币的产量也会急速下降，并最终达到中本聪所预设的2100万枚上限。
“简单来说，如果你电脑争气又聪明，就可以帮你赚到比特币了。 ”2010年开始炒比特币的刘二（化名）向记者解释称，新的比特币是由网络节点在完成一个特定数学问题计算之后生产出的，这些数学问题都需要相当的运算能力才能破解。“电脑配置越高，运算速度就越快，挖掘比特币的效率也就越高。 ”
比特币能用来干什么？这是外界看不懂的另一重原因。除了极少数极客愿意用比特币卖货外，绝大多数比特币只是一组被严密保护的虚拟数据，没有任何实际的变现价值。

狂热的比特币矿工

Mt.Gox这个网站大概处理世界上80%的比特币交易。最近一个月的最高价格出现在4月10日，266美元，最低价格出现在4月12日，54美元。截至昨天，它的收盘价是85美元，似乎没有规律可言。
而在淘宝网上，有卖主以10枚30300元的价格出售比特币，过去一个月中成交了13件，相当于130枚。在不少人看来，比特币的实际价值还比不上废纸。但在“矿工”们的眼中，这些虚拟数据却是投机炒作的致富钥匙。
“今天接了五个电话，两个是媒体采访，另外三个都是咨询购买比特币的。一个白领准备了10万元，一个股民准备把股市里的钱转出来买比特币，另一个做企业的老板恰好不久前卖掉一套房子，准备拿房款500万购买比特币。”入行较早的段宏斌说。
据知情人士提供的信息线索，记者查找到3个比特币QQ群，前两个都因为已满1000人而无法加入。在第三个群里，记者以菜鸟的身份向资深“矿工”们讨教到不少经验。
“开台电脑就想挖矿，你想得太天真了。”一名“老鸟”询问了记者的笔记本电脑配置后惋惜地表示：“以你电脑的速度，24小时挂机，二十几年后倒是也能挖到个比特币的。”另一名新手也表示，他用显卡GT645M的笔记本挖了2小时，挖得的比特币数量是0.00001个。
记者在“前辈”们的指点中了解到，不少专业挖矿的都是十几台设备一起操作，他们行话叫“煤老板”。煤老板们用来挖比特币的也不是电脑，而是专门的“矿机”。
简单来说，“矿机”就是砍掉了一切不需要的功能、能以最大功率来计算的电脑裸机，外形相当粗犷。在淘宝网上，各种不同配置的“矿机”从几千元到几万元不等。一台装有两张8核显卡的矿机，售价为11998元。而在一些海外网站，还有更强大的托管式矿机出售，被推荐给记者的机型每台售价2499美元。
“由于产量越来越少，比特币开采已经竞争很激烈了，甚至变成设备竞赛。”刘二说，除了追求高端的显卡外，最近还有人把专用集成电路整合在特制的服务器中，这一块电路的造价就接近3000美元。
“这贵吗？当然不贵。这不是矿机，是印钞机。”另一位资深“矿工”羊先生透露，他当年在比特币10美元的时候买了10台“矿机”，12000元一台。由于汇率变动，几个月就回本了。“很多人买不起，索性上班的时候开公司电脑挖，用公家的电也不心疼。”

又一场君子兰泡沫？

对于暴涨暴跌的比特币，矿工们的投资底气何来？在这个涉及互联网、金融、货币的多重复杂命题中，他们中的很多人也在迷茫中投机，甚至在投资失败后暴跳如雷，痛斥这是一场骗局。
在记者看来，发生于4月15日的一场虚拟账号间的对话可以说明一些问题。
“比特币和造假币无异。”投资者L说，私人弄出来的玩意可以和国家强制力发行的货币对等，这个游戏规则注定了比特币要破产。“国家以生产力、黄金储备等等硬实力支撑发行货币，比特币呢？就好像一个村子的人自己用纸画钱，然后想跑来跟全世界的人买东西。造假币的还要自己买纸，买油墨，买复印机，这个东西什么都不需要。”
另一名用户F迅速反击：“先学点基础的金融知识吧，矿工购买电脑、显卡，交付电费的钱不是其劳动所得赚取的吗，然后还需要经常维护更换耗损来维持挖矿，本质和挖任何一个现实存在的矿没有任何区别。”
“现实中挖出来的矿物是有很多用途的，比特币呢？ ”第三名用户H反唇相讥。
“那纸币其实也只是一张纸，跟假钞又有什么区别？ ”F问。
L继续质疑：“纸币是有国家信用担保且强制流通的，比特币出了小圈子谁认呢？你说纸币是假钞，那送给我好了。 ”
“我早就把‘假钞’换成购买力更强的比特币了，任何一个接触比特币的人都会发现传统体系的巨大局限性。”F回答他。
看到上述对话后，刘二迅速向记者做出了他自己的判断：F是媒子。“媒子就是不断对外界鼓吹比特币好处的人，他们自有一套逻辑体系。不排除媒子中有一些真心崇拜比特币的极客，但大多数都是想找愣头青接盘的炒作庄家。”
事实上，经历了不久前的比特币暴跌后，质疑者正在持续增多。“别被一些炒客所蒙蔽。他们正在让后来者为他们虚构的价值观埋单。就像前些年炒君子兰，泡沫自然破灭后，接最后一棒的人倾家荡产。当然，君子兰本身还有些实用价值，而比特币一点没有用。”用户好奇20130318在百度贴吧中炮轰。
“有人说比特币是通过开着计算机浪费着电费创造出来的，不错，正是因为有这样一个错误的逻辑思维才能支撑着这样一个圈套。就好像您在家做了1000个俯卧撑，累得满头大汗，最后把汗都攒了起来，然后找个人说我这汗是用体力换的，所以你就应该买我的汗。可笑吗？”上述质疑者说。

挑战国家金融体系

在投机者的炒作下，比特币或许已稍许背离了中本聪的初衷。但直到目前，仍没有哪一国ZF出面对这种虚拟货币叫停。
尽管如此，来自民间的质疑声一直未曾休止，在利益追逐下的不和谐之音也不绝于耳。记者查阅维基百科发现，2011年6月，赛门铁克警告称，部分狂热的“矿工”通过控制他人电脑的“抓肉鸡”方式来秘密挖掘比特币。这会消耗电脑计算周期，消耗更多的电量以及使得计算机温度升高。不到三个月内，发现了专门感染MacOSX操作系统的比特币“挖掘”木马。
记者同时在《比特币沉浮录》一文中看到，美国参议员查尔斯舒默曾专门举行记者招待会，呼吁毒品管理局和司法部关闭“丝绸之路”，他称其为“我们所见过最明目张胆的网上贩毒行为”，并形容比特币是“一种网上洗钱形式”。
“比特币已经疯了，我们正在见证一个巨型泡沫的诞生。比特币泡沫将是唯一一个具有全球性质、全世界的人一起参与的泡沫，未来将涨到让所有人震惊的地步，等到它崩盘，将会套死一大群人。”段宏斌不久前说。
IT律师赵占领分析称，比特币投资目前主要有两大风险。第一来自监管层面，随着比特币的功能范围扩展到支付手段、涉及金额逐步增加、影响范围逐渐扩大，最终必将引起各国ZF监管。没有哪个国家会允许这种不由中央银行发行、不受监管、却又冲击法定货币的虚拟货币的存在，直接涉及到一国的金融主权和金融秩序。
“而且，这种比特币不同于之前已有的网络运营商发行的虚拟货币。网络运营商发行的虚拟货币总是中心化的，对于ZF而言是可控的，目前ZGZF的主要控制思路是两点：第一，使用范围仅仅限于发行商自己提供的虚拟产品或者服务；第二，不能反向回兑，以免虚拟货币具有流通的职能。”赵占领说。
第二重风险来自安全层面。赵占领告诉记者，比特币虽然由于技术和算法设置可以避免被伪造、避免通货膨胀，但是却存在重大的安全隐患，一旦被黑客攻击，仍可能会给持有者造成损失，甚至给比特币本身带来信用危机。

来自:http://finance.qq.com/a/20130418/006596.htm

作者: hill888 时间: 2013-4-19 12:55
不懂

作者: nanbo 时间: 2013-4-19 13:23
文化水平不高，按我现有水平理解是一种另类的HYIP项目

作者: 风流 时间: 2013-4-21 11:59
说的是人话么
怎么我还是不懂啊

作者: adh5969 时间: 2013-4-26 11:45
(MoneyWatch) Until last week, plenty of news stories were talking up the digital currency Bitcoin, created by anonymous engineers. It has been touted as the brave new world of Internet money, a pure "mathematical" medium of exchange with a barely changing supply, untouched by the corrupt hands of central bankers and the inevitable inflation they cause. You could use Bitcoins to buy lunch. Or a house.

Well, if you did want to buy a house using Bitcoins as your medium of exchange, it would have been best to arrange for a closing no later than Wednesday morning. Because later that day, when the value of one Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $266 to a U.S. dollar, the digital money took a swan-dive. By late Wednesday, if you were still committed to the transaction, your house would have cost you twice as much -- and even more if you had waited until the following day, because Bitcoins just kept losing value.

It's not exactly a case study in how to conduct a real estate transaction. Or even the purchase of a falafel sandwich. Bitcoin's sharp rise and fall, coming after stories about unwitting people pouring their life savings into the fledgling currency, has called its future prospects into question. And amid all the hype about a new type of alternative money, the Bitcoin story raises questions about what a currency is and why people do or don't trust it.

Gold prices in freefall
Bitcoin: What's the buzz about?
Bitcoin hits new high, then nosedives
"There has been a lot of confusion about what money is," said Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore who has advised many countries on currency questions. Bitcoin "is a very speculative asset. One of the functions of money is a unit of account for future payments, like a mortgage payment, so if you've got a lot of instability it's a big problem."

Instability is putting it mildly. Owners of Bitcoins had already seen booms and crashes, but the rise last week was the big daddy of the new money's young life. Within 26 days, the value of one Bitcoin soared from a little over $40 to over $266, before turning tail and crashing to as low as $40 the next day. The move up was said to be tied to hot money getting out of Cyprus after the island nation last month clamped down on banks and confiscated deposits.

Play VIDEO
Man accepting bitcoins for sale of house
The move down? That was the typical pop and hiss as air leaves a balloon. Today, a Bitcoin was trading around $90.

The price of a Bitcoin had been rising more or less steadily in recent months, but the Matterhorn of price surges came as economic troubles in Cyprus reached a boiling point in mid-March, when regulators put out the word that they would be confiscating a percentage of people's bank accounts.

"There was a very high correlation between the trouble in Cyprus and the Bitcoin's surge," Hanke said. "The crisis starts developing, then you get a few stories arguing that if capital controls are put in place in Cyprus, people would move into Bitcoin -- that it would be a natural escape route."

Those predictions, Hanke noted, were not so accurate. "No one bothered to look at the where the money was coming from," he said. "It was all money from the United States and none from Cyprus. The expectation was that Bitcoin would be used, so people started buying capacity. And if the supply is fixed in stone, then it's a perfect storm for a huge price rise."

For devotees of Bitcoin, its finite supply is a key draw. The number of Bitcoins is growing slowly through so-called "mining," in which geeks with powerful computers can earn extra coins by answering challenging mathematical questions about Bitcoin's supply and demand. The supply of Bitcoin will stop growing entirely in 2040.

But that feature, as Hanke notes, becomes a liability when demand surges and sends the price of Bitcoin precipitously higher. Even without such a spike, a currency that grows ever more valuable will not be suitable for a medium of exchange. People then hoard the currency, rather than spend it, as they anticipate they will be able to buy more with their money in the future.

The enthusiasm for Bitcoin among many of its aficionados appears to overlap with another group that tends to mistrust fiat currency and the dictates of central bankers: goldbugs.

Dislike of the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy has prompted investors and analysts in both camps to predict rampant inflation. While so far that hasn't materialized, those beliefs have helped fuel a dramatic rise in the price of gold, a traditional hedge against inflation. Perhaps coincidentally, gold prices had been falling for months, but suffered their own monumental plunge on Monday. Sites such as Zerohedge quickly claimed that the government had sabotaged the price of gold just as they had the price of Bitcoin.

"A core group of Bitcoin users are extreme libertarians who are similar to goldbugs," said Reuben Grinberg, a lawyer at Davis Polk & Wardwell who began writing about the legal and economic underpinnings of Bitcoin while he was in law school."They don't like government regulation and prefer anonymity, privacy and autonomy. They want to abolish the Federal Reserve and think central banks in general hurt the economy, and they also distrust the established financial system, including well-known financial intermediaries such as banks. For them, Bitcoin is a perfect embodiment of their ideals: no central government control over its supply and apparent anonymity, privacy and autonomy. Owning Bitcoins is a way of life for some of them."

Take for example, the libertarian Mercatus institute at George Mason University. Jerry Brito, a senior research fellow and head of the technology program there, said in a recent video on the center's site that "people who like liberty are going to be excited about" Bitcoin. One of the concept's main benefits, he said, "is this idea that the central authority doesn't control the money supply, so they can't just print more money, so your money is going to be more stable and your money is going to retain its value."

In an interview the day Bitcoin's price was collapsing, Brito backed off from the notion that it can serve as a stable store of value, but argued that there is a future for either Bitcoin or perhaps some other virtual currency that comes along to replace it. "It's revolutionary for lots of reasons," he said in an interview. "Among them is its anonymity, the difficulty of governments to control it and the absence of a central banker."

Brito and others cite the case of Wikileaks, which saw banks and other financial institutions launch a financial blockade to stop supporters from sending payments to the hacker organization.

But one man's liberty is another man's virtual corner drug deal, a fact which, like Bitcoin's price volatility, raises questions about its future. Experts agree that a large chunk of transactions using Bitcoin is illicit, involving the purchase of either drugs such as marijuana or psilocybin ordered over the Internet, and gambling. One possible response could come from governments that might seek to regulate the newfangled unit out of existence.

Governments, individuals and creators of rival currencies could also attack Bitcoin exchanges and owners through hacking, creating enough distrust that the currency would collapse and disappear.

So with all the volatility and uncertainty, what will the future likely hold for Bitcoin?

Grinberg, who attributes the dramatic rise and fall of Bitcoin's price to media attention that drew in a lot of unfortunate speculators, said he hopes its price stabilizes and that the new currency becomes entrenched and used for legal purposes. "There is inherent value, but there are a lot of hiccups and there is a lot of risk," he said. "I would never encourage an average investor to get into it. But I'm cautiously optimistic."

Hanke, who has advised governments from Argentina to Estonia on currency matters, has his doubts. "This industry is in its infancy with very few barriers to entry," he said. "The costs are low to produce something like a Bitcoin, and once that comes into the picture then you could get an alternative supply, and then the finite resource isn't so finite. But if it appears to be a viable challenger to state money, the governments will try to eliminate the challenger. It's very profitable for states to print money."

"The other alternative," Hanke added, "is it goes no place and becomes an interesting footnote in money and banking books."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-5051 ... in-we-cannot-trust/

作者: admin 时间: 2013-4-26 12:42
楼上的给翻译下啊写这么多看着眼花

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